Forecast 2026: Overnight tourism in the Netherlands grows slightly, with shrinking domestic market

Domestic overnight tourism shrinks after years of growth

After several years of solid growth, domestic overnight tourism is expected to shrink by 1% in 2026. This brings the number of Dutch overnight guests to 30 million. Growth already slowed considerably in 2025.

The VAT increase on accommodation increases price sensitivity, making Dutch people more likely to choose more affordable destinations across the border, such as Germany and Belgium. This could already be seen in 2025 with the strong growth of budget-friendly camping holidays and it may continue in 2026.

At the same time, there are also factors that support the demand for domestic holidays. For instance, the latest Holiday Sentiment Monitor shows a slight increase in the intention to spend the next holiday within the Netherlands. The economic context is also more favourable than last year, with lower inflation and rising household consumption.

International growth continues but at slower pace 

International overnight tourism in the Netherlands is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2026, which is sharply lower than the 5.1% growth in 2025. This will result in about half a million additional international overnight guests, bringing the total to 23 million. Weakening growth is linked to concerns about rising costs, especially in key European country of origin markets. European travellers are more price-conscious and quicker to adjust their travel behaviour in the face of higher accommodation prices. 

Flattening in Europe, stronger growth from distant markets

At around 80%, Europe is still the main region of origin for international stays in the Netherlands. Germany is by far the largest market, with almost 8 million guests, but growth will level off to 0.5% in 2026. Germans make more price-conscious choices and are more likely to choose more affordable regions or campsites. There is also limited growth with Belgium (+1%) and the UK (+1%), with the number of visits from the UK still below 2019 levels. The British are very price-sensitive and relatively quick to switch to other European cities when prices rise.  

This is offset by stronger growth from distant markets. The number of arrivals from the United States is expected to increase by 5%. Overnight tourism by those from Asian countries is growing by around 11%, with stable growth from China (+3%) and stronger growth from India. Overnight tourism originating from Africa and the Middle East shows remarkably strong growth (+20%).

Stays are getting shorter due to price pressure

For the largest country of origin markets - the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium and the UK - the number of nights spent is expected to develop less favourably than the number of overnight guests. Consumers respond to price increases by shortening their holidays or booking fewer nights, which means that the average length of stay is expected to decrease slightly in 2026.

Cautious optimism despite price pressure

Despite the VAT increase and rising costs, there are reasons for cautious optimism. The international economy is growing moderately, inflation is falling, and travellers continue to rate the Netherlands as a good value for money holiday destination. Moreover, the full VAT increase is not expected to be passed on to consumers. The bottom line is that NBTC expects a slightly growing but vulnerable accommodation market, in which price-conscious behaviour and competition with neighbouring countries play an increasingly important role.

Continued growth requires valuable tourism

”Growth in 2026 will be modest, but we expect it to continue and reach 61 million visitors by 2035 (+24% vs. 2023). The continued demand, in particular from our neighbouring countries and distant markets, recognises the attractiveness of the Netherlands as a destination for tourists and business visitors alike. By continuing to invest together in valuable tourism - with a focus on local economies and quality of life - we ensure that visits significantly contribute to the well-being and prosperity of residents and businesses in the Netherlands.” - Yvonne Nassar, Managing Director NBTC

We do this partly by focusing on the right knowledge and insights, practising smart destination management and attracting visits that have the most positive impact on local economies in the Netherlands. For example, we’ve implemented the international Welcome to the Slowlands campaign, in which we highlight lesser-known destinations and slow-travel experiences. Slow travel is about travelling mindfully by slowing down and it’s a way to appeal to impact-conscious visitors interested in local culture, hospitality and nature. 

Interested in participating in one of our activities? Feel free to get in touch with one of our colleagues.

Want to know more about all the figures? See the full publication Forecast 2026 - Overnight tourism forecast in the Netherlands.